A survey of experts in the field shows that 2025 solar energy will become much cheaper while improving significantly, however, this trend can be sustained in the long term without a financial commitment to research.
In line with the trend initiated since 1980, the prices of solar modules – Part generating electricity – should continue to fall, according to a new survey published by Near Zero, a nonprofit organization of energy research nonprofit. However, as prices continue to fall over the long term, we need continued support in the search for materials used for the manufacture of solar modules.
To get an idea of the future price of solar energy and other challenges and obstacles that will face the industry, Near Zero conducted a quantitative survey which intervened experts from industry, universities and national laboratories.
These surveys are a way to gather a formal expert judgment on a subject. By aggregating the forecasts made independently by various experts, the results reflect some collective strategy that the solar industry could develop, and they also identify the degree of uncertainty about the future.
The survey asked experts their expectations about future prices of solar modules as well as the anticipated costs for other components of solar equipment. The experts also indicated how much power they thought solar energy installed in the coming years.
They expect that the price of solar energy installations drop enough so that they become much more competitive than they are today. They plan and an explosion in the amount of solar installed (10-fold between 2010 and 2020), growth is expected to continue at a similar pace until at least 2025.
However, according to experts, this forecast will become just that if the price of solar continues to decline over time, which will require investments in research and development. If the price of solar continues to decline as expected the investigation, the growing solar installations could be achieved while requiring less expenditure each year at present. But if prices were to maintain rather than decrease, then the same development of solar energy during the period 2012 – 2025 would cost at least 50% more in addition to hundreds of billions of dollars.