The global energy demand growth will add 36 percent in the period between 2008 and 2035, an average of 1.2 percent per year, estimates the latest report from the International Energy Agency.
According to the picture painted by the agency, 93 percent of that increase will be generated by countries outside the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), China will account for 36 percent of it.
Since 2009, China has overtaken the U.S. as the biggest consumer of energy, despite its low per capita consumption level, and how they manage this growing use of fossil fuels will have “big implications for the rest of the world, ‘says IEA.
During the period under review, the share of fossil fuels in global energy matrix tends to decrease, while renewable energy sources gain more space, especially wind and solar.
At the same time, including fossil fuels, natural gas will be the experience the most growth and level of use is closer to the coal. However, “oil will remain the dominant fuel in the energy matrix in 2035, followed by coal,” the report said.
As a result of increased demand, oil prices should rise to about $ 113 per barrel in 2035 compared to $ 60 per barrel it cost last year.
The IEA study also indicates that the measures promised by the G-20 to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases are ‘collectively inadequate to achieve the target set by the Copenhagen agreement to keep the global temperature increase below two degrees Celsius. ”
‘The increasing demand for fossil fuels would continue to promote increased carbon dioxide emissions related to energy between now and 2035, making it impossible to achieve the goal of two degrees Celsius’ he says.
According to the scenario of ‘new policies’ used for calculations, the global temperature would rise 3.5 degrees Celsius over the long term.
This projection assumes a global context in which all countries of the G-20 pledged further action to reduce CO2 emissions and phase out incentives for production and consumption of fossil fuels.