The projections of energy (World Energy Outlook) that the International Energy Agency (IEA) presented recently in London established that 36% growth in global energy use will centered around China which, according to the data Preliminary 2035, will become the largest energy consumer in the world, with 22% of global demand charge.
The IEA advanced other data in the press conference. A barrel of oil would rise from $ 60 (43 euros) for marketing in 2009 and 100 dollars (75 euros) in 2015, reaching a value of over $ 200 (150 euros) in 2035, when he is expected to reach the production peak and begin declining conventional reserves. Although the Agency’s Technical might indicate that short-term prices remain volatile (the November 9 sold for $ 87.63, the highest since October 2008).
On the other hand, the IEA report the need to end subsidies for fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas) accounted for 312,000 million dollars (225,000 million euros) in the world of public funds compared to 57,000 million dollars (41,000 mill. euros), intended to encourage renewable energy development.
In the ‘New Policy Scenario, the model has been developed more risky than the IEA, states that 93% of the increase in demand between 2008 and 2035 will come from developing countries, with 36% of sole responsibility of China.
These data were the result of increased economic growth and industrial production in these countries. China would stand at the forefront as a leader in the league of countries that consume more energy in the world and in 2035 alone would be responsible for 22% of global demand, with the U.S. in second place.
Thus, the Asian country would register a 75% increase in demand between 2008 and 2035 and, according to preliminary data, displacing the U.S. in 2009 as the largest energy consumer in the world. Surprisingly, if we think that in 2000 China’s energy consumption was half that in the U.S. and that it was increasing between 2000 and 2008, four times higher than in the previous decade.
Towards a golden age of gas?
“It’s hard to overstate the importance of China’s growing energy markets. How the country reacts to threats of global energy security and climate imposed by the increased use of fossil fuels will have far reaching consequences for the rest of the world, “said SINC Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director.
The IEA also notes that China’s role in low-carbon energy technologies could be crucial in the world, and designates it as “the country that could lead to a golden age of gas.”
Despite the attempt to clean and green energy to the world of dirty fuels, particularly gas and oil will remain the dominant energy source. Oil demand will grow gradually to reach 99 million barrels a day consumed globally in 2035, 15 million more than projected in 2009. The growth comes from countries that are outside the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), with China being responsible for more than half.
The IEA has made clear, however, it is time to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels, which are more than five times greater than those that are renewable. He asserts that the growth of clean energy needs support from governments.
“Renewable energy could play a role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and diversification of supply, but only if they receive strong and sustained support in an accessible way,” says Tanaka.
Electric vehicle with lithium batteries do not emit CO2 or damage the environment if the electricity comes from renewables such as wind, solar photovoltaic and solar thermal or thermal. Wind turbines can supply electricity to electric vehicles in the future will also serve to store and regulate the electricity intermittent wind energy sector.
Despite the need for support, the mixture of wind, solar, marine, geothermal, hydro and biomass tripled its presence between 2008 and 2035 as expected, and its common share in primary energy demand goes from 7% to 14% .